Finance & Markets

Thirty major central banks are expected to cut rates in the second half of 2024, a year when more than seventy nations will have elections, which often means massive increases in government spending. Additionally, the latest inflation figures show stubbornly persistent consumer price annualized growth.

In the United States, headline PCE inflation in February will likely grow by 0.4%, compared with a 0.3% rise in January, and consensus expects a 2.5% annualized rate, up from 2.4% in January. This is on top of the already 20% accumulated inflation of the past four years. Core inflation will likely show a 0.3% gain, according to Bloomberg Economics, which means an annualized 2.8%, building on top of the price increases of the past years

Thirty central banks easing and seventy national governments increasing spending in an election year means more fuel for the inflation fire in a year in which money supply growth has bounced significantly from its 2023 lows.

Central banks ignored monetary aggregates when they shrugged off the risk of inflation in 2020, and now they are, again, easing way too fast when the battle against inflation has not finished. Furthermore, the only real tool that central banks have used is hiking rates, because different parallel measures of money growth, including reverse repo liquidity injections, have kept money supply growth at an elevated rate even when the balance of the G7 central banks was moderating, albeit at a slower pace than announced.

Cutting rates may come too late because, by the time it is implemented, it will cause a double negative. Government deficits will be cheaper to refinance, bloating an already record-high public debt yet again, but those cuts may have little impact on small and medium enterprises and families because they suffer significantly more from the accumulated effects of inflation, which means weaker margins, more difficulties to make ends meet, and impoverishment.

We must also remember that these persistent levels of official inflation come after relevant tweaks in the calculation of the consumer price index.

We certainly know one thing: consumers do not pay attention to the annualized rate of growth in prices, but to the accumulated level of destruction of their purchasing power, and everyone, from Europeans to Americans, knows that they have become artificially poorer by the insane fiscal and monetary policies implemented in 2020.

Nobody who takes inflation seriously would even consider easing in an election year, adding trillions of dollars of deficit spending to the fire of inflation. Furthermore, the history of inflation warns us about giving up easily and too fast.

The Fed is making a big mistake by cheering the headline economic figures that come from disguising a private sector recession with a massive increase in public debt and weakening employment figures embellished by temporary jobs and public sector hiring. Additionally, it is making a mistake by giving dovish signals that make market participants take more risk. There has been no relevant reduction in the money supply if we include the different layers of liquidity injections. Announcing forthcoming rate cuts will certainly make speculative debt rise but will hardly change the credit demand from the backbone of the economy, small businesses, and families. Since the US government has rejected any calls for normalization and instead added more deficits and debt as if rising bond yields were not a problem, citizens and businesses have already suffered greatly from ongoing inflation and rate increases. As such, the rate cuts will help an already bloated government spending and the zombie corporations that keep access to capital markets. Everyone else will be hurt both ways, with inflation and lower access to credit.

You may think all the above problems are policy mistakes, but they are not. This is a slow process of nationalizing resources. Inflation and artificial money creation through deficits and monetization are a gradual transfer of wealth from real salaries and deposit savings to the government. You are basically becoming poorer to sustain an ever-increasing government size. The next time you read that massive deficits and monetary easing are good policies for the middle class, ask yourself why you find it harder each year to pay for goods and services. The mistakes made in 2020–2024 will cost the middle class many more taxes, even if the government promises it will only be “taxes on the rich,” the oldest gimmick to raise your taxes.

More taxes, persistent inflation, the hidden tax, and the loss of value of your wages. That is “easing” for you. A private sector recession with headline economic figures bloated by government debt. The recipe for stagflation.

The U.S. federal government published a December deficit of $129 billion, up 52% from the previous year. The private sector recession is clear as expenses continue to rise while tax receipts decline. If we look at the period between October and December 2023, the deficit ballooned to a staggering $510 billion.

You may remember that the Biden administration expected a significant deficit reduction from its tax increases and the expected benefits of its Inflation Reduction Act.

What Americans got was a massive deficit and persistent inflation. According to Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, the entire disinflation process seen in the past years comes from exogenous factors such as “fading fallout from the global pandemic on global supply chains and labor markets, and the Russian War in Ukraine and the impact on oil, food, and other commodity prices.” The complete disinflation trend follows the slump in money supply (M2), but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should have fallen faster if deficit spending, which means more consumption of newly created currency, would have been under control. December was disappointing and higher than it should have been.

The United States annual CPI (+3.4%) came above estimates, proving that the recent bounce in money supply and rising deficit spending continue to erode the purchasing power of the currency and that the base effect generated too much optimism in the past two prints. Most prices rose in December, and only four items fell. In fact, despite a large decline in energy prices, annual services (+5.3%), shelter (+6.2%), and transportation services (+9.7%) continue to show the extent of the inflation problem.

The massive deficit means more taxes, more inflation, and lower growth in the future.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects an unsustainable path that still leaves a 5.0% deficit by 2027, growing every year to reach a massive 10.0% of GDP in 2053 due to a much faster growth in spending than in revenues. The enormous increase in debt will also lead to extremely poor growth, with real GDP rising much slower throughout the 2023–2053 period than it has, on average, “over the past 30 years.”

Deficits are not a tool for growth; they are tools for stagnation.

Deficits mean that the currency’s purchasing power will continue to vanish with money printing and that the real disposable income of Americans will be demolished with a combination of higher taxes and a weaker real value of their wages and deposit savings.

We must remember that, in Biden’s administration’s own estimates, the accumulated deficit will reach $14 trillion in the period to 2032.

This unsustainable level of fiscal irresponsibility will also lead to more massive money printing. The Federal Reserve will have to lead with larger federal fiscal imbalances than seen in crisis times, even considering estimates that assume no recession or crisis. So, if a crisis hits, the situation will simply explode.

Considering all these elements, it is not difficult to think of a Fed balance sheet that rockets from an already elevated 29% of GDP to fifty percent, and it will still be lower than the ECB’s balance sheet!

Readers may think that monetization of debt will be an uncomfortable but necessary measure to reduce indebtedness. However, we should have learned by now that Federal Reserve monetization only makes governments more fiscally imprudent. Public debt continues to reach new record highs both in periods of monetary expansion and in periods of alleged contraction.

2023 proved that central banks’ policy was only restrictive in name, as net liquidity injections and anti-fragmentation programs continued. Policy was restrictive for the private sector, especially small and medium enterprises, and families, not for governments.

2024 will be even worse because the government will not count on rising receipts and a doped economic recovery. Therefore, deficits are likely to surprise negatively again, which means more taxes and lower potential growth disguised with a new set of liquidity injections.

What does this mean for savers? Your US dollars will be worth less, real wages will continue to show poor growth, and, after tax, disposable income will decline. The only way to protect yourself is to find alternative real reserves of value, from gold to bitcoin, which will offset the monetary destruction that is about to accelerate.

The U.S. federal government published a December deficit of $129 billion, up 52% from the previous year. The private sector recession is clear as expenses continue to rise while tax receipts decline. If we look at the period between October and December 2023, the deficit ballooned to a staggering $510 billion.

You may remember that the Biden administration expected a significant deficit reduction from its tax increases and the expected benefits of its Inflation Reduction Act.

What Americans got was a massive deficit and persistent inflation. According to Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zendi, the entire disinflation process seen in the past years comes from exogenous factors such as “fading fallout from the global pandemic on global supply chains and labor markets, and the Russian War in Ukraine and the impact on oil, food, and other commodity prices.” The complete disinflation trend follows the slump in money supply (M2), but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should have fallen faster if deficit spending, which means more consumption of newly created currency, would have been under control. December was disappointing and higher than it should have been.

The United States annual CPI (+3.4%) came above estimates, proving that the recent bounce in money supply and rising deficit spending continue to erode the purchasing power of the currency and that the base effect generated too much optimism in the past two prints. Most prices rose in December, and only four items fell. In fact, despite a large decline in energy prices, annual services (+5.3%), shelter (+6.2%), and transportation services (+9.7%) continue to show the extent of the inflation problem

The massive deficit means more taxes, more inflation, and lower growth in the future.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects an unsustainable path that still leaves a 5.0% deficit by 2027, growing every year to reach a massive 10.0% of GDP in 2053 due to a much faster growth in spending than in revenues. The enormous increase in debt will also lead to extremely poor growth, with real GDP rising much slower throughout the 2023–2053 period than it has, on average, “over the past 30 years.”

Deficits are not a tool for growth; they are tools for stagnation.

Deficits mean that the currency’s purchasing power will continue to vanish with money printing and that the real disposable income of Americans will be demolished with a combination of higher taxes and a weaker real value of their wages and deposit savings.

We must remember that, in Biden’s administration’s own estimates, the accumulated deficit will reach $14 trillion in the period to 2032.

This unsustainable level of fiscal irresponsibility will also lead to more massive money printing. The Federal Reserve will have to lead with larger federal fiscal imbalances than seen in crisis times, even considering estimates that assume no recession or crisis. So, if a crisis hits, the situation will simply explode.

Article originally published in Tomorrow’s Affairs

As we embark on the year 2024, the economic landscape is characterized by a blend of factors, including declining but still elevated inflation, potential interest rate cuts, increasing geopolitical risks, and soaring public debt.

The final quarter of 2023 witnessed a remarkable improvement in market sentiment. The moderation of inflation, strong corporate profits that exceeded expectations, and optimism regarding impending rate cuts all contributed to this surge.

The heightened complacency, evident in the “extreme greed” levels on the CNN Greed and Fear Index, resulted from aggressive rate reduction expectations by central banks and projections of a swift decline in inflation. However, as we move into 2024, parallels with the preceding year become apparent.

Contrary to market expectations, a “soft landing” is not enough to bring about the anticipated year of disinflation; a recession is the necessary catalyst.

An abrupt increase in the global money supply, standing at nearly $107 trillion by the end of the year, remained a bulwark against a recession in 2023, coupled with relentless government spending.

A lag effect

The contrast between alleged tight monetary policy and active fiscal measures has placed the entire negative impact on the private sector, bearing the brunt of rate hikes and declining monetary aggregates.

A manufacturing sector that remains in deep contraction is joined by a services sector that sees how consumers have almost depleted their savings for 2021.

Although inflation declined alongside monetary aggregates, the economic repercussions have been delayed due to a lag effect.

The full-scale impact of the 2023 monetary contraction is expected to manifest in 2024

The full-scale impact of the 2023 monetary contraction is expected to manifest in 2024, leading to a decline in inflation if the economy falters and private sector demand recedes.

However, the notion of a quick slump in inflation with no impact on growth or jobs appears increasingly implausible. Additionally, a looser monetary policy may contribute to commodities rebounding, attracting freshly printed money towards unconventional assets, and making the inflation decline more challenging.

The impact of debt and public spending remains a critical consideration. Will central banks uphold market support? How will taxes and macroeconomic factors shape the global economy? These questions underscore the delicate balance between recovery and potential risks.

A year of stagnation

In 2024, a prudent investment policy is recommended. Central banks are expected to maintain accommodative policies, injecting liquidity selectively. However, anticipated interest rate reductions may not be as significant as expected.

The global economy enters 2024 with less uncertainty. Geopolitical risks seem to have been discounted, and this may be a sign of excessive optimism in a year where global growth is projected to slow markedly, while the Eurozone and Latin America may continue to show worse growth than their counterparts.

2024 will likely be a year of stagnation with elevated public debt

Strong China and India growth will not likely change the weak trend of productivity and growth generated in most developed and emerging economies after years of debt-fueled government spending programs.

2024 will likely be a year of stagnation with elevated public debt. Thus, the expected quantitative tightening is likely to be less severe with a rising global money supply and improved credit conditions.

A risky environment for fiat currencies is anticipated, with ongoing destruction of the purchasing power of the domestic currencies as governments continue to increase their fiscal imbalances.

Gold and bitcoin may help citizens avoid the debasement of currencies without ignoring the large difference in volatility of each asset class.

Global loss of purchasing power is likely to continue even with declining annual rates of rise in consumer prices, with expected global inflation between 3.5% and 4%

Expectations of large rate cuts and even quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve may be too optimistic. In a U.S. election year, substantial changes in monetary policy are not anticipated.

As such, global demand for dollars is expected to rise, creating a favorable environment for dollar-denominated assets.

Numerous risks cast shadows on the economic horizon, including more persistent inflation, unanticipated impacts on business margin and profits, potential currency depreciation in emerging markets, the ongoing China-USA trade conflict, the war in Ukraine and Israel generating widespread geopolitical risk, and the spectre of a black swan event in the debt market causing a credit crunch.

2024 is likely to be very similar to 2023. The long-term trends of weak productivity and GDP growth, high debt, rising government size in major economies, increases in taxes, and erosion of the purchasing power of salaries and savings will continue.

Equities may react positively to looser monetary policy, but the macroeconomic path to stagnation remains.